Dbacks Problems Run Deep

In the middle of the 3rd game of the season, i got upset at what i was watching and what i had seen, and questioned the ability of this Diamondback team to make a run at a division title. Just 4 games later, after the 7th game of the season, i am no longer questioning this team. I'm declaring them dead. 

This team has WAY too many problems that need fixing for anyone to consider them anything more than a 'project'. The fact that we didn't see this going into the season is an indication not on the team's ability to cover those flaws up, but on our insistence to quickly gloss over the issues and assume they would get better. I got news for anyone out there reading this: Their issues have not gotten better. In fact, they may have gotten worse. 

It doesn't matter how well the starting pitchers pitch (Davis goes 8 innings with 2 earned runs and Haren went 6 innings with 1 earned run in the last two outings), if the Dbacks can't score they aren't going to win. In the Dbacks only two wins, they threw up 9 runs in each. In their other 5 games they've put up a combined 6 runs. Scoring one run a game will not get it done, no matter how good your starting pitchers are. Ok, so how is this different from last year? How is is possibly worse? 

Last year the problem was an issue of timely hitting. The Dbacks got hits, got men on base, but couldn't move the runners and couldn't get the hits when men were in scoring position. This year? They can't even get men on base! The Dbacks have one hit from their right field position the entire season. One hit. From the Eric Byrnes/Justin Upton combination. Which is only slightly worse than the three combined hits they have from the catcher spot. Conor Jackson, the team's best hitter last season, is batting .214. 

And what about the small ball? Through three games the Dbacks hadn't even attempted a stolen base. Through 7 games they have two stolen bases and one caught stealing. With the speed of Chris Young, Justin Upton, Felipe Lopez, Eric Byrnes, and Mark Reynolds (who's faster than you think), they should be running a lot. Instead, they actually might be running less than last year, attempting just three stolen bases in 7 games. 

And let's not forget the other glaring problem with last year's team, the bullpen. To date this season, the ERA's of our bullpen are 15.75 (Buckner), 9.82 (Rauch), 2.25 (Pena), 8.10 (Gutierrez), 3.86 (Schoeneweis, 5.40 (Sltaen), and 0.00 (Qualls).  To be fair, Qualls has the least amount of work (2.0 IP) than anyone on the staff other than the left handed specialist Doug Slaten (1.2 IP). Not exactly a stellar round-up of ERA's. Does anyone on this staff not scare you when they come into the game? Qualls maybe, MAYBE, but it's hard to say with only two innings of work. He wasn't exactly a rock last year. 

Again, it's only 7 games into the season, but something would have to dramatically change in three different parts of the game (hitting, small ball, bullpen) for the Dbacks to accomplish anything this season. That is too much to overcome in the span of one season, when nothing improved in the off-season. As a result, let it be known that i'm the first to call this season over. The Dbacks are heading for a 90-loss, last place finish in the West season. I take no joy in this, and wish it would be different. I had a lot of optimism going into the season. But the Dbacks have managed to break that optimism in a span of just 7 games. No easy feat...

Is Game 3 Too Early To Declare The Dbacks Season Over?

It's a rhetorical question, and asked mostly in jest, but listening to the the third game of the opening series against the Rockies, it's becoming apparent the Dbacks have not solved any of their problems from last year. Just three games into the new season and the Dbacks are showing signs of the same bad habits that plagued them the second half of last season: They can't hit consistently, their defense isn't great, they can't play small ball, and their bullpen is getting killed.

In game 1, the Dbacks scored nine runs, but 6 of them were from the home run. They also managed three doubles, accounting for one more run. In game 2 the Dbacks managed to not put up a single run, and only had one extra base hit courtesy of Stephen Drew. Through 5 innings so far today, the Dbacks have just one run, again courtesy of a home run. In the last three innings alone the Dbacks have gotten their leadoff man aboard, only to leave him stranded at 1st base. In nine at bats they haven't been able to advance a runner a single base!

That's not even mentioning the pitching yet. Today Davis just left after 5 after giving up 4 runs. Webb was erratic (that's being kind) in game 1, and it came out today he has some shoulder stiffness and will miss his next start. If Webb misses any serious amount of time, you can forget this team even having a chance. In Game 2 Haren was fantastic, allowing just one run over 7 innings. Of course, he was relieved by Jon Rauch, who promptly gave up two earned runs in 2/3 of an inning. Now would be a good time to mention that a) Rauch was AWFUL after he gave over to the Dbacks last season, and b) he had the highest ERA (16 something) of any pitcher in Spring Training in 2009 (cannot verify this, but this stat courtesy of Schulte on the Dbacks radio broadcast).

Rauch didn't play in game 1, but that didn't stop Doug Slaten and Scott Schoenweis from each giving up an earned run in just 2/3 of an inning. Admittedly, Tony Pena and Chad Qualls both looked pretty good getting the last 7 outs of game 1. If there is any silver lining or hope to the bullpen, it's that these two provide a solid 8th and 9th inning for the Dbacks over the course of the season. 

Oh, and did i say something about small ball? The Dbacks have yet to even attempt a stolen base. For a team who told us all offseason they were going to get back to playing small ball and running the bases, that's a scary start to the season. 

Despite the title of the article, i am by no means giving up on the Dbacks already this season. But it is scary, and disturbing, that through two and a half games they have yet to show any progress at correcting the problems that plagued them last year. Not a good start to a season with high expectations...

The Diamondbacks Starting Pitching Situation

Last week i previewed the 2009 Dbacks in two segments, one for the outfield, and the infield. Today i'll get to my last preview for the season, the starting pitching.

Unlike anything behind the mound, the Dbacks starting pitching for 2009 seems pretty well set. They made one major acquisition (Jon Garland), and had one major loss (Randy Johnson). They have one guy who will be stepping up into a starter's role (Max Scherzer), and three guys who were all here last year (Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, and Doug Davis). Without further adu, let's get into it.

#1
Just as it's been the last 5 years, Brandon Webb is the anchor of the Dbacks pitching staff. A ground ball machine, Webb is about as reliable a #1 starter as you could ask for. With a 22-7 record last year and his penchant for going deep into ballgames, Webb is the perfect pitcher to head a rotation.

#2
At 16-8 with a 3.33 ERA, Dan Haren has good enough stuff to be a #1 on a lot of staff's in MLB. The fact that the Dbacks only need him to be a #2 is fantastic. The Dbacks acquired Haren before the 2008 season, with the clear intention being that they were building on pitching on defense. Unfortunately for the Dbacks (and Haren), the defense wasn't always there. The pitching was, and Haren was a big part of that in 2008. He will be counted on again this season if the Dbacks look to win the NL West.

#3
There seems to be a bit of a debate on which pitcher to put in this slot and which pitcher to put in the #4 hole, but for now it seems like Doug Davis will be here. Davis is a lefty who won't overpower anyone with his stuff, but is a crafty pitcher. When his curve is working it's absolutely filthy. Most games he can be counted to get through 6 innings; anything more than that is a bonus. Davis went 6-8 last year with a 4.32 ERA, though to be fair he missed a good chunk of the season after undergoing surgery to remove some cancerous cells. Davis has a tendency to start the season a little slow but finish very strong. Something like a 12-8 record from him would be great.

#4
Diamondbacks newcomer Jon Garland will fit nicely into this spot for the club. A record of 14-8, which Garland posted last season with the Angels, would be a pretty good record from your #4 spot. Garland has been an 18-game winner twice, and has posted double digit win totals in each of the last 7 seasons. If he can continue to do that, the Dbacks are in good shape.

#5
Which brings us to the back-end of the rotation, the one 'weak' link if you will. How weak it actually is depends on how well you think a rookie will do. Ok, so maybe Scherzer isn't a rookie, as he got playing time last year, but this is the first time he goes into a season as a starter. He was just 0-4 last year, but posted a fantastic 3.05 ERA. It's hard to predict how he will react to being 'the man', but seeing as he's only the #5, and the Dbacks have four really solid pitchers in front of him, there shouldn't be a ton of pressure on him. All you really look from a #5 is something close to a .500 record.

So there you have it. I will not delve into the bullpen situation, mostly because it was such an abject disaster last year and i have no idea how it will play out this year. But with a very strong starting rotation, a little bit of defense, and a little more maturity from our young players, the Dbacks could be on the cusp of a great year. Let's hope it plays out that way...

The Diamondbacks Infield Situation

Part 1 of my Diamondbacks 2009 Season Preview is here, in which i took a look at their outfield. This is Part 2, where i will look at their infield.

Much like their outfield going into 2009, there are a lot of questions surrounding the Dback infield this spring. With as many as 7 different people figuring into the equation, it makes for a very confusing situation. Let's start with what we know for sure...

Short Stop:
Stephen Drew cemented himself as the Dbacks SS for the foreseeable future with a very solid 2008 season, including the second half of the season where he was nearly unstoppable. He posted career highs in nearly every statistical category, and was one of only two people in the lineup with any sort of consistency. Combine that with his solid play and good range at SS, and you've got yourself an every day player.

Second Base:
Acquired from St. Louis in the offseason, Lopez figures to be a a fairly constant fixture at 2B this season. He finished with a .283 batting average last season, including .385 in the last 43 games of the season. He's not a power hitter, with only 6 HR's and 46 RBI's, but he had a decent amount of doubles (28). He is also a switch hitter, and this lineup desperately needs left handed hitters. Unfortunately he doesn't appear to be a great defensive player, having lead the majors in errors by a shortstop in 2006, and in 2007 had the lowest fielding percentage of all NL shortstops. Yes, that was as a shortstop, and yes he is playing second base for the Dbacks this season. That versatility (or for the cynics questionable position) is a theme for the Dbacks infield in 2009.

Getting the majority of backup second base time will once again be super-sub Augie Ojeda. Ojeda is considered a utility infielder, and can play 2B, SS, or 3B, though most of his time is spent between 2B and SS. He has spent the ends of the last two seasons replacing an injured Orlando Hudson at 2B, and played and batted well in those stints. He will figure prominently in giving guys days off, and if there are any injuries in the infield.

First Base:
Your starter most likely is going to be Chad Tracy. Tracy is something of an question; A could-be batting title winner who struggles to find a true position on defense and can sometimes struggle from the plate. It's hard to take too much stock from the last two seasons as he has been injured, including microfracture surgery in his knee. His last full season, 2006, he batted .281 with 20 HR's and 80 RBI's. I should also mention he is a left handed hitter, which as noted above this team desperately needs. I think Tracy can be a very productive member of the team if he stays healthy and shows an ability to play a decent 1B.

Your backup is Big Tony Clark once again going into 2009. After trading him away between the 2007 and 2008 season, the Dbacks re-acquired Clark from the Padres towards the end of last year. He is used primarily as a pinch hitter and late inning defensive replacement, as he is good with the glove. Unfortunately, he struggled mightily from the plate after returning to the Dbacks. Going through Spring Training and spending the full season with the Dbacks should allow Clark to return to a solid hitter. Like Lopez, he is a switch hitter.

Conor Jackson needs to be mentioned in the debate about 1B as well. If for some reason his stint in LF does not work out, or if Byrnes warrants a return to the line-up in that position, it pushes Jackson back to 1B, where he spent most of his first few years. Jackson though, prefers LF and plays a better field there in my opinion. If he is kicked back to 1B, Tracy possibly gets moved to our next position...

Third Base:
Your starter, at least to begin the year, is Mark Reynolds. The man everybody loves to hate and hates to love. If Tracy is a question, Reynolds is a downright enigma. He managed to set a MLB record for most strikeouts in a season last year, yet also finished first or second on the Dbacks in HR's, RBI's, walks, and runs scored. And after a stellar second half of the season in 2007 at 3B after being called up from AA, he spent most of 2008 struggling in the field, leading MLB in errors by a SS by a lot.

His ability to hit 450ft HR's is hampered only by his inability to hit anything resembling a breaking ball. By the 2nd half of the season the scouting report on Reynolds was simple: Don't throw him anything fast or straight. He couldn't hit anything else, nor could he lay off anything else. I'm listening to Matt Williams on the radio as i type this, and he had a long conversation about the time he's been spending with Reynolds, both at the plate and in the field. Let's hope the work pays off, as Reynolds could be the power guy the Dbacks are lacking.

So there you have it. While the outfield has 4 players splitting time for three positions, the infield has 7 splitting time for 4 positions. If things go well you've got a solid lineup and a decent field. If things go bad you've got neither. These 7 players may very well decide the fate of the Dbacks in 2009.

Next up this week is a look at the Dbacks starting pitchers, a group that figures to be much more stable than either the infield or the outfield. Stay tuned, and thanks for the support.

The Diamondbacks Outfield Situation. Also, My Return.

...And we're back. With the return of the Dbacks set to begin tomorrow in their first Spring Training game, this blog returns to regular posting. More than anything the timing is coincidental at best. To be honest i was a bit burnt out from a variety of reasons, and as such my writing suffered. And i hate when what i write is total crap. So i stepped away for a while.

But recent events got me thinking it was time to return. First off was the transformation of the old AZ Sports Hub site into Fanster.com. The guys over there, including Greg, Matt, and Vince, have been awesome to me and have supported me throughout the adventure that has been this blog. Their new site is fantastic, and is definitely worth spending some time whether you live here in the Valley or elsewhere.

Second, i've increased my web presence even more by starting my own personal blog (which you can find to the right) and signing up on Twitter. Find me on twitter here, it's a combination of both this blog and my personal life.

Now, back to your regularly scheduled programming.

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The Diamondbacks head into 2009 as a team with a lot of questions, in a lot of different positions. After a disappointing end to a 2008 season that started with such promise, the team is looking to bounce back with a solid, and hopefully more consistent, 2009 season. Over the course of the next week, i'll be taking a look at some of the positions the Diamondbacks face uncertainties at. The first i'll look at is the outfield situation.

Center Field:
I'll start with the only sure-fire, guaranteed position in the outfield. Chris Young isn't going anywhere, and we should all be very happy about this. At 25 years old, CY is already one of the best defensive CF's in all of baseball. His range and speed are his biggest assets, allowing him to cover up deficiencies from both the LF and RF in that area. He also has the ability to become a decent power hitter, and is capable of becoming a doubles machine.

That said, he's coming off of a bit of a disappointing 2008. Despite playing in more games and getting more at-bats, his numbers were down from 2007 in many offensive categories, including stolen bases, home runs, doubles, slugging, and OPS. Not to mention the fact that he struck out 165 times last year.

If CY can continue to develop while refining other aspects of his game, he could be set for a monster year. He could become a 40-steal, 40-double guy, with the ability to knock in 30 HR's and 100 RBI's. Ambitious yes, but not out of the question. The biggest thing he needs to do is cut down his strike-outs and get back to running. Do that and everything else will fall in line.

Right Field:
No, i'm not gonna say he's a lock in the outfield. Not yet. Not after he spent time last year injured and in the minors. Yes, the kid is immensely, immensely talented, and has all the tools to become a superstar in this league. All he's gotta do is put it all together.

Just 21 years old, Justin Upton could very well be the real deal. We've seen flashes, him gunning down a runner at home plate, him absolutely destroying baseballs into the upper deck, him flying around the bases with unparalleled speed. We've also seen the inexperience, him dropping fly balls, him missing the cut-off man, him getting picked off on the base paths.

This should be shaping up to be his break-out year. He got a pretty decent run at it last year, getting the experience and know-how of what it takes to be a full-time MLB player. Now it's time for him to put it all together and show what he is capable of. He has no real competition at right field, but Bob Melvin also won't let Upton hang himself out there if he's not getting it done.

Count me among the ones who is hoping he will get it done and have a breakout season.

Left Field:
The situation in left field has been mishandled for going on three years now. Luis Gonzalez, while getting old, could have been serviceable out there for another year when the Dbacks decided to dump him. When they did, they turned it over to Eric Byrnes. Byrnes is a nice player who does a great job hustling, but he's no star. That didn't stop the Dbacks from giving him star money, to the tune of $10 Million a year for three years. After receiving the contract, he promptly finished the 2007 season batting under .250, and spent most of 2008 hurt.

Which brings us to Conor Jackson, who replaced Byrnes in LF last year. Jackson actually became a bit of a revelation in LF, seeming much more comfortable there than he had been at First Base. That comfort in the field led to comfort at the plate, and it showed in 2008. Jackson posted career highs in batting average (.300), walks (59), hits (162), runs (87), doubles, triples, and total bases. All of which led to many people calling for Eric Byrnes' head, or at least for him to be shipped out of town.

Neither of which happened. Which creates one of the more interesting position battles in camp. What to do with Eric Byrnes. Can you pay $10 Million a year for a fourth outfielder? Do you let Byrnes and Jackson fight out it in an open competition for LF? Where do you stick Jackson if Byrnes were to beat him out? You can't leave Jackson out of the lineup, he's arguably the team's best hitter.

All indications are that Jackson is set in LF, and Byrnes will be the fourth outfielder. If Byrnes comes back healthy though, and is able to hit and run, can you keep him out of the lineup? What if Upton is struggling both in the field and at the plate?

Interesting questions, to be sure. Though if you think that's a messy situation, you obviously don't know about the infield situation, which involves as many as seven different people, including LF Conor Jackson. I'll be looking at that in the coming days.

As always, thanks for your support.

The 2009 Diamondbacks Season

A few days back i wrote a (lengthy) piece on the 2008 Diamondbacks season, with a promise to write a follow-up post about where the Dbacks go from there. This is that post.

That 2008 column ended with a line about the Dbacks facing a mountain of questions going into the 2008 off-season and into 2009. While an admittedly cheesy wrap-up to the post, it was nonetheless true. The Dbacks have a ton of questions they need to answer, and i'm not sure where they (or i) will even begin.

Let's start with a big one: The Big Unit. Randy Johnson is sitting on 295 wins, just five short of they mythical 300. There's no denying it would be a great accomplishment for him, and based on the way he pitched the second half of this season he will get it next year. But will he be in a Diamondbacks uniform? Hard to say.

The Dbacks aren't going to pay Johnson a lot of money. They still owe him something like $41M for his last contract with the Dbacks (no, not this one. The one from before. You know, back from when he won the World Series here?). It's hard to tell what Randy will do; He's always been a bit of a selfish player, but i wonder if he recognizes he should stay here and win 300 with the team he's going into the Hall of Fame with. If he does re-sign here, look for it to be around only $4M, even though he could command upwards of double that in the open market.

Staying in the starting rotation, you have Webb and Haren as the unquestioned leaders. Behind that? Murky. Doug Davis is a crap-shoot as to whether he will be back or not. Max Scherzer will be your number 4, probably regardless of who is here and who isn't. A rotation of Webb, Haren, Johnson, Davis and Scherzer isn't bad. Webb, Haren, Scherzer, Petit, and a started to be named later not as much.

The bullpen is even worse. Depending on who you listen to, the Dbacks need to either get rid of everyone or everyone had an off year and will be better next year. Realistically it's somewhere in the middle. I don't know how you bring Jon Rauch back after his trainwreck of a season here. Chad Qualls is the 2009 closer, mark it down now. He will be fine in that role. Move Lyon back into the 8th inning, i think he will be fine there as well. Either Tony Pena or Juan Cruz are likely gone; Make the other the 7th inning guy.

Billy Buckner and Leo Rosales will be the long-relief guys. What the Dbacks are in desperate need of, and what they have been in desperate need of for years, is a left handed reliever. Sorry Doug Slaten, you are not the answer. Will Ledezma, a late season pickup, could be it. He pitched fairly well in admittedly limited action.

Looking out into the outfield, there is a logjam. Chris Young is the starting Center Fielder. His bat suffered this season, but his defense is gold-glove-worthy. Justin Upton is the Right Fielder. His defense is suspect, but he's only 21. And his bat became electric the last month of this season. In left-field you have some issues.

After the way CoJack adjusted to the switch and how he started to hit once out there, you are basically forced to leave him in left. Problem is you're paying Eric Byrnes $10M a year to be the left fielder. And i know not many people remember this, but when healthy Byrnes isn't a bad player. He hit .276 in his two full season with the Dbacks, 2006-2007, and has some pop in his bat. Not to mention he's the best base-stealer on the roster, something the Diamondbacks sorely missed this year. From the things Bob Melvin and Derrick Hall have been saying, it sounds like Byrnes will go into 2009 as the 4th outfielder. Hard to put $10M on the bench, but in this case it looks like the best option. He'll get plenty of chances to play.

On the infield you have a total disaster. Shortstop is the only position locked up with Stephen Drew. Drew really came around the last month and is poised to have a seriously good breakout season in 2009. The rest of the infield is completely up in the air. Mark Reynolds will be there, though there's no telling where. Third clearly isn't the best place to put him (though he played pretty well there in 2007). There are a lot of rumors about him moving to second, which is where he played in the minors, to replace Orlando Hudson, who will be gone. Just in the last week there has been some talk of putting Reynolds at first as well.

Where Reynolds plays will depend largely on what the Dbacks do in the offseason. If they can get a good third baseman, Reynolds moves to the right side of the infield. If the Dbacks get a stud second baseman, Reynolds may stay at third. The Dbacks do have some options already here. Augie Ojeda and David Eckstein wouldn't be a bad combo at second for the year. Both are good with the glove and good enough from the plate. If the Dbacks go that route, i could see them going after a third baseman in free agency or through trade, and putting Reynolds at first.

Either way, there are a lot of choices and decisions to be made. The Dbacks could also bring Jamie D'Antona up; He can play either corner infield spot. And, of course, all of this is assuming Adam Dunn is gone as well. There has been talk of the Dbacks trying to re-sign him, but i don't think it will happen. Dunn strikes out too much in a lineup filled with people who strike out too much, and is a defensive liability pretty much everywhere on the field.

The last position is catcher. Unlike every other position on the Dbacks, catcher is locked up. Chris Snyder is the starting catcher, he can play almost every day, and he brings a decent bat to the order. Behind him could be interesting. Miguel Montero has been rumored to be working out at third base in the offseason. If that's the case, Robby Hammock would likely be the back-up catcher.

No matter how you shake it, the Diamondbacks will be a very different looking team in the 2009 season. It would not surprise me to see 8-9 players from this season's team gone next season. And while that is a lot of change, it is not necessarily a bad thing. As we saw down the stretch this season, something needs to be done. Let's just hope the Dbacks can pull the right strings...

The 2008 Diamondbacks Season

Now that the season has come to a whimpering end for the 2008 Arizona Diamondbacks, it's time to take a look back at the season that was. This will be part 1, with part 2 coming later this week in which i take a look at the Dbacks going forward.

First things first: No matter how you slice it, this season was a disappointment. Coming off a year when the Dbacks made the 2007 NLCS, this team was expected to compete for the NL West crown and return to the postseason. Contend for the crown they did, firmly planted in first place in the NL West for 136 games of a 162 game season. Unfortunately those other 26 games just happened to be at the most critical time of the season: The end.

Other than a fast start in April, the Dbacks played sub-.500 baseball all season long, though managed to finish 82-80. It just so happened they were in a historically bad division, which allowed them to remain in first place through most of the season. Which became a rallying cry for this team: "We're still in first place". No matter how bad they looked, no matter how many games they lost, no matter how many errors committed and games blown by the bullpen, the answer always became "Hey, at least we're still in first place".

Ultimately, i believe this is what led to the Diamondbacks demise. The Dbacks never took control of their situation. They never showed a will to win the games they needed. They never showed that killer instinct to step on teams throats when they could have. They were content to sit back and just scrape by.

The Dbacks, and admittedly Bob Melvin was behind this, showed an amazing knack this season for giving away games. This manifested itself in many ways, all of which were destructive. In a three-game series, if the Dbacks won the first two they would invariably trot out their b-team for game 3 as if it did not matter. 2007 was all about winning each series. While a good mantra, it just did not work for 2008. This season we needed more wins, more games. This Dbacks team could not afford to start 3 or 4 bench players at a time.

And don't get me started on giving away games by the bullpen. In 2007 this team had one of the best bullpens in the Majors, which is ultimately got them to playoffs and was the difference over the Cubs in the NLDS. With only one move, trading Jose Valverde to the Astros, the Dbacks thought they would be ok. Move Lyon from the 8th to the 9th, move Pena from the 7th to the 8th, and put Chad Qualls, who they received in the Valverde trade, in the 7.

Despite Lyon blowing two saves in the first 5 games, all seemed fine with the bullpen through April. That was, until it completely imploded, a disaster so complete that not only did every pitcher there go through stretches where they couldn't get an out, but you never knew who was going through the stretch and when. Each pitcher had times when they were completely awful, but it would come and go from week to week, game to game. How do you decide which relief pitchers to run out there when you never know which one is gonna suck, just that one of them definitely is going to?

Just so we don't place all the blame on the bullpen, we must also look at the offense. Arizona finished 27 out of 30 teams in Batting Average, with a paltry .251. They finished with the second highest number of strikeouts in the Majors. And for a team that played virtually no small-ball, you would think they would rely on the home run. Problem is, they finished 19 out of 30 in home runs hit this season.

With the exception of Conor Jackson, Orlando Hudson when he was playing, and Stephen Drew in the last month, the rest of the team could be described only as struggling. If you look at our 'core' 13 starters (Snyder, Montero, CoJack, Dunn, O-Dog, Ojeda, Eckstein, Drew, Reynolds, Tracy, Byrnes, Young, and Upton), 8 finished with a .250 BA or below. Only 3 finished above .290. That's not getting done.

Honorable mention goes to Mark Reynolds, who admittedly i am a fan of and will defend to the death, to his season that is a complete and total statistical oddity. Taking away Adam Dun, who played only 44 games with the Dbacks, Reynolds managed to: Lead the team in HR's, lead the team in RBI's, lead the team in Walks, 2nd on the team in Runs Scored, 3rd on the team in Total Bases, 2nd on the team in Stolen Bases, and lead the team (and set a Major League record) in Strikeouts. Oh, and just for good measure, he lead the team (and the Major's) in Errors as well. His season is on par with one of the most bizarre, inexplicable seasons by a single person in MLB history.

And as long as we're talking about fielding, let's not forget that the Diamondbacks finished 26 of 30 in team fielding percentage, and 6th in most Errors committed.

So to review, the Diamondbacks finished in the bottom 10% in team batting, and the bottom 20% in team fielding. At least we have pitching, right? Right?

Well, actually, in this case they are right. The Diamondbacks did have pitching, despite their horrific bullpen. Did you know the Dbacks had more Quality Starts than any other team in baseball? And gave up the fifth-fewest home runs in all of baseball? It helps when you have Brandon Webb (22-7, most wins in the Majors) and Dan Haren (16-8, tied for 7th most wins in NL). Every other person that started a game for the Dbacks went a combined 27-39. The Bullpen went 17-26 in case anyone was wondering. Special mention here goes to Jon Rauch, who the Dbacks traded for to be their closer, and managed to go 0-6 with a 6.56 ERA.

There are many other items i could get into regarding the 2008 season for the Arizona Diamondbacks. For instance the strange, almost complete refusal to attempt a running game (only 2 teams had less stolen bases than the Dbacks), and Bob Melvin's decision on pretty much everything. In 2007 Melvin was dubbed the Mad Scientist because seemingly every decision he made worked perfectly. 2008 was the exact opposite, as seemingly no decision he made worked out and was second-guessed by everyone. He may not be as good as the NL Manager of the year award he won last year, but he can't be as bad as he was in 2008 can he?

Regardless, everything that happened with the Dbacks resulted in one thing: An 82-80 record, and watching the playoffs from home. In the end, it wasn't enough, which amounted to a massive hill of disappointment for the Diamondbacks and their fans. Not to mention an even larger hill of questions going forward into 2009...

Fact Of The Day

Mark Reynolds: 22 Home Runs, 69 RBI's, 68 Runs Scored.

Manny Ramirez: 20 Home Runs, 68 RBI's, 66 Runs Scored.

I'm not saying, i'm just saying...

ManRam To The Dodgers

Well, that kinda came out of left field. Literally.

Manny Ramirez is now a Los Angeles Dodger. For peanuts no less. The Dodgers gave up nothing to get him.

ManRam's numbers this year are: .299 BA, 20 HR's (that's it?), 68 RBI's, .398 OBP, and .590 Slugging Percentage. Not too bad, though to be honest i was surprised at the HR total. Mark Reynolds has more HR's than Manny.

Anyway, what does this mean for the Dodgers, and how does this affect the Dbacks? Well, the obvious is that the Dodgers just got more pop in their lineup. I think the Dodgers will be better, but i'm sure how much better.

Think of it this way. No matter how you look at it, the Dodger's lineup is not the Red Sox lineup. They don't have the players around Manny to protect him the way someone like David Ortiz did in Boston. Manny as a Dodger will be fairly easy to pitch around or walk in big spots with a base open.

The clubhouse chemistry could be interesting as well, as Manny has been known to be, uh, quirky. That said, i think with Joe Torre as the manager and Manny now on a new team in a contract year (no chance LA has him next year), Manny will actually be a great clubhouse presence for them.

Whatever happens, it should tighten the race for the NL West even more. The Dbacks have the type of team built to counteract the Manny signing, namely a good rotation and a (mostly) good bullpen. Manny is a great hitter, no doubt, but in the postseason pitching always beats hitting. Always.

With the Dbacks in Chavez Ravine to open a four game set tonight, the NL West is now officially a sprint to the finish. Game On.

Dodgers 6, Dbacks 5: A Microcosm Of The Season

Well, that was disappointing.

In a game in which the Dbacks put on full display to the Valley of exactly their season woe's, the Dbacks lose a heart breaker and series-clinching game to their number 1 current rival, the LA Dodgers.

Last year's motto for this team was 'Anybody, Anytime'.

The apparent motto for your 2008 Diamondbacks is 'If it ain't one thing, it's another'.

With the exception of the first week of the season, when the Dbacks in all likelihood peaked for the season, this Dbacks team has had any number of issues. Ranging from the inevitable (injuries), to the mundane (batting woes), to the completely inexcusable (poor fundamentals), this team has gone through long stretches of each this year. When one part starts to come back a little bit, another bit goes. It's as though this team is incapable of putting together a 'complete' game.

The last two nights, in spectacular fashion no less, it was the closer Brandon Lyon. With the exception of the first week of the year, Lyon has been a rock at the back end of our bullpen, the one person who the Dbacks could count on. In the last two games, he's been given a combined 6-run cushion, and has promptly given up 7 runs. I'm amazed we managed to win one of those games...

In a series in which it appeared the Diamondbacks bats were starting to come around, especially the top 4 to 5 hitters, the bullpen completely fell apart. And though it was Lyon in the last two games, it did not escape our set-up men either, with Leo Rosales and Doug Slaten giving up the tying and winning runs, respectively.

In all three games against the Dodgers, the Dbacks jumped out to early leads, compiling 11 runs in the first two innings, while managing to score just 4 runs in the other 23 innings (game 1 went 11 innings). Regardless, that should have been good enough in all three games to win them.

The scary stat of the week, courtesy of Daron Sutton and Mark Grace, is this: Last year, the Dbacks lost 6 games in which they had the lead after the 6th inning the entire year. This year already they've blown 16. Take even half that amount and the Dbacks are 56-42 with an 8 game lead in the division.

Which brings us back to the bullpen. Granted Qualls and Pena have had their struggles lately, but nothing like the total meltdown Brandon Lyon has had the last two days. That Valverde trade is looking worse and worse, given that we got back an unreliable set-up man in Qualls and a completely worthless Chris Burke (.186 BA, 0 home runs, 7 RBI's, why is he still on the team?).

I still think Lyon can be a good closer, on this team even, but his struggles are just an indication of a bigger problem with the Dbacks: Their bullpen as a whole. Juan Cruz is injured. Conner Robertson is mediocre at best, Doug Slaten ditto, especially as a left handed 'specialist', Edgar Gonzalez is out for the season, Qualls is slightly injured, Pena has struggled as of late, and Lyon just blew two saves (I'm still calling game 2 a blown save even though it technically wasn't). Yusmeiro Petit has actually looked good as of late, but he's a long reliever/starter, so doesn't get much time in relief. Though maybe he should.

So, rumors are swirling. Jon Rauch from the Nationals is the hot name, presumably to come in as a closer and push Lyon back to the 8th inning. Problem is, the Nationals will want something in return, and Dbacks are hesitant to give up a top-flight prospect or any of their big league guys. I've also heard a rumor about moving Micah Owings to the bullpen (where he pitched from in Philly right before the all-star break, which i thought was curious at the time), and moving either Petit or Max Scherzer into a starter's role. I think this could be an interesting role, though i'm not ready just yet to give up on Micah as a starter.

Personally i think you could also look at moving Scherzer or Cruz into a permanent set-up role, but that's just me. All i know is that right now, the bullpen as presently configured isn't getting it done and is costing the team games. It's getting too late into the season for that to be happening...

Ouch

Yeah, this pretty much looks bad...


I hope CoJack is ok and doesn't miss too much time...

Phoenix Sports Odds & Ends

I haven't kept up writing reactions to the Suns-Spurs series as well as i would have liked, mostly because i can't properly put into words exactly what i've been feeling about it. After Game 1, which everyone agrees was an instant classic, the series looked poised to become on of the all-time greats.

Then Game 2 rolled around, and the Suns stayed close towards the end before folding. Then they lost at home in Game 3. And suddenly they were down 3-0 and on the brink of elimination.

Game 4 was a win, which was predictable all things considered. Game 5 is tonight, another must-win for the Suns in order to avoid elimination. There are a considerable amount of people out there that believe the Suns will win tonight, and at least make this somewhat of a series. I am skeptical at best.

As a indictment of how deep my skepticism runs, i will be attending tonight's Dbacks games instead of watching the Suns Game 5. I also have tickets to tomorrow's Dbacks game. Oh, and well pretty much every other game this season at Chase Field. Season tickets. They're a beautiful thing.

Especially when the team is so damn good.

The Dbacks are rolling. Absolutely cruising, rolling through the competition like a freight train on the way to an MLB best 19-7 record and a 6.5-game lead in the division. They have played in eight series, and have lost only 1. On offense they lead MLB in runs scored, RBI's, Slugging Percentage, and total bases. For pitching they lead MLB in ERA, wins, (least) losses, hits given up, and Batting Average Against.

Does this sound like a team that might be good? How about you combine that with the fact that they are one of the youngest teams in baseball also?

This baseball team is fun to watch, in the way they play the game, in the way they come up big in the right spots, in the way they interact with each other. Everyone keeps saying that the season is still young, but it's not that young anymore. We're a month into the season, and things don't look to be stopping for the Dbacks.

I do not know know what the rest of the season holds for the Dbacks, but if they keep playing the way they started this year, it's hard to imagine many teams finishing ahead of them...

(By the way - Found this through my brother, but check out the forums over at Diamondbacks Bullpen. These guys are awesome with their info, and their gameday threads are second to none from any team and any sport.)

And I'm Back

Sorry for the extended delay. I was out sick for a while, then out of town for a wedding. Both bad excuses, but i'm back. And with Baseball season in full swing and the NBA playoffs about to start, expect a lot of writing coming up...

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Leading the league in runs scored. Leading the league in home runs. Second in total bases. Leading the league in RBI's. Second in batting average. First in On Base Percentage. First in Slugging Percentage.

Chris Young is first in the league in runs scored. CY tied for 2nd in home runs. Mark Reynolds tied for second in RBI's. Justin Upton 4th in Slugging Percentage.

Sounds like the Dbacks might be off to a pretty good start right?

Oh yeah, i forgot: They also have the second lowest ERA in the majors and third lowest batting average against.

All of this sounds like a recipe for a 10-4 start to the season for the red-hot Diamondbacks.

Hey NL West, the NL, and baseball in general: Better watch out, these Diamondbacks are on fire.

Coming into the season, everyone figured the pitching would be there. With last year's AL All-star starting pitcher Dan Haren combining with Cy Young winner Brandon Webb at the top of the rotation, that figured to be a strength for the Dbacks. It was hard to tell what you would get from Randy Johnson and Micah Owings, who was coming off a terrible spring (0-2, ERA north of 9.5), but at least at the top you had stability. The bullpen figured to be strong, with the lone question mark being the closer.

Well, Randy made his first start yesterday and looked pretty good, all things considered. If the defense had shown up at all, he would have had the win. Owings has been spectacular, going 3-0 so far. The bullpen, with the exception of the closer spot (get to that later), has been solid as well.

What people weren't sure about coming into the season was the Diamondbacks offense. Everyone knows about the offensive woes last season, getting outscored over the course of the season, struggling to score runs, batting averages 4o points or more south of where they should be, etc.

This year that has seemed to turn around. Drew is batting near .300. Upton is hitting .388. Conor Jackson is at .313. Byrnes is at .291.

I realize the season is still young, but if nothing else the start will give confidence to all our young guns for the rest of the season. That's all these young guys need, a little confidence and the knowledge that they belong here and can hit at this level.

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I mentioned that the Dbacks were 10-4 on the season, but what i didn't mention is who they've beat. In the middle of a 22-game stretch against NL West Division foes, the Dbacks have gone 9-2 against the likes of Colorado, Los Angeles, and San Francisco. Besides the great overall start, they are off to a great start in their own division, which is always big.

I realize seasons are not won in April, but they can be lost. The Dbacks have done the work and put themselves in a great position to start a season in which they have high expectations. Up to this point, they have shown why those expectations were so high to begin with.

I Said Amen Brother!

Dbacks Reynolds practices patience.

ps- Baseball is back! Yeah Spring Training!

Haren to the DBacks, WoW

Everyone is very excited about Dan Haren joining the Dbacks starting rotation, but I thought I would add some knowledge for y'all. Webb & Haren both had 34 starts, pretty routine for them the past 3 years, or 68 starts between them. Webb had 18 wins and Haren 15 last year for a total of 33. Webby and the Dbacks also won 4 additional games (out of 6) he started but did not factor into the decision. The A's also won 4 games when Haren received a no decision. Assuming that both have similar seasons, which is highly probable, that is a total of 41 wins in 68 games. 41 - 27, or 13 games over .500 from our top two starters. If the number 3 - 5 starters can just play .500 ball for the remaining season it will translate into 88-74.

I personally think that Haren will easily have a higher winning percentage due to being on a much better team than last year and expect at least 3 - 5 more team wins from the Dbacks, thus bumping that 88 wins to 92 and enough for the playoffs. Bottom Line - Webb and Haren will pitch the DBacks into the postseason if we can just get .500 ball from Davis, Owens and RJ or... ? The 1 - 2 punch of Webby and Haren will be even more effective in the playoffs, it should be a very good year! Is it February yet?

Congrats!

Bob Melvin, your 2007 NL Manager Of The Year.

I can't say i'm surprised, since he led his team to the most wins in the NL, a division crown, and an appearance in the NLCS. I did wonder how much of a vote Clint Hurdle of the Rockies would get though...

The NL West

Well, if nothing else, no one will be calling the NL West the NL Worst again anytime soon. The DBacks and Rockies play in the NLCS. The Padres have one of the best pitching staffs in all of baseball. And now the Dodgers... well, the Dodgers are making some noise.

Grady Little has resigned as manager of the Dodgers. His replacement? None other than ex-Yankees skipper Joe Torre, if you believe Tim Kurkjian of the Worldwide Leader. Kurkjian reported today that an announcement of Torre as Dodgers manager is imminent, and could come as soon as the next couple of days.

Oh, and just in case that isn't enough, there is another hot rumor about the Dodgers. LA is rumored to be one of only a few teams in the running to sign one Mr. Alex Rodriguez. A-Rod likes Torre, and the Dodgers are one of the teams that could afford to sign him. One of the weirder reasons i've heard for this signing is that Scott Boras, uber-agent, is based in Newport. A-Rod did not have a father figure growing up, and it's been speculated that Boras has become that for A-Rod.

It is strange, and a bit of a stretch, but is plausible if you think about it. A-Rod has made some strange career choices (Texas, and now opting out of the rest of his contract), and it could be due to Boras speaking in his ear. Boras is (naturally) looking out for himself, trying to make as much money as possible for his clients so he himself gets paid. This ploy of opting out of his contract, especially considering the timing of the announcement (during the 8th inning of Game 4 of the World Series), is a curious one, but figures to make A-Rod max money (somewhere in the 10 year, $30 million range supposedly). Understandably, Boras may want to be close to his best and highest paid client. Similarly, A-Rod may want to be close to someone he considers a confidant and somewhat of a father-figure.

Personally, i think the Torre rumor has legs. It was no secret they were after Joe Girardi, but he was signed as the new Yankees manager. So they went after the next best option, who is obviously Torre. As for the A-Rod thing... hard to say. The only teams i think could even afford to sign him are the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Cubs, possibly the White Sox, Dodgers, Angels, and maybe the Giants. The Yankees and Red Sox have both said they will not go after him, and i believe that. The Cubs are out because of their messy ownership situation (don't get me started on that either. MLB would be crazy not to allow Mark Cuban to buy this team, but they are too short-sighted and stupid to allow this to ever happen). White Sox won't do it because they can't really afford him, even though they think they can. A-Rod doesn't want to go to the Mets because he doesn't like the NY media.

That leaves the California teams, the Angels, Giants, and Dodgers. I just don't think the Angels will do it, it seems to go against their idea of building a 'team', as A-Rod is notorious for polarizing not just fan bases, but players as well. The Giants are a possibility, as no team in baseball understands the effect a superstar chasing a record can have on a fanbase. Make no mistake, A-Rod will be chasing records in the next 5-7 years, and will most likely break a lot of them.

And then there's the Dodgers. This team has the fanbase, tradition, now the manager, and the money to open the bank. The Dodgers have not spent mega-money on a player in many years, and with new manager Joe Torre, the Dodgers could be looking to make a splash.

If you are the Dodgers, you just sat through a season in which you were picked to finish first in the division, but in which the Padres showed off their amazing starting rotation and lost a one game playoff to win the Wildcard, the Rockie's showed off their great young talent and finished 14 of 15 in the regular season to win the Wildcard, and the Dbacks won 90 games and the division.

It will probably be a while before A-Rod makes a decision, but don't be surprised if A-Rod re-unites with Joe Torre and signs with LA. And when it happens, the NL West may be the most talked about division in baseball next year...

Dbacks: A Season In Review

I have purposefully avoiding writing about the Diamondbacks season ending a few days ago so I could step back and take a rational look at the entire season, not just a knee-jerk reaction to one series (like my post about CoJack following Game 4 - Sorry about that...). Yeah, the way the season ended hurt. The Dbacks played bad and batted worse. The Rockies were a runaway freight train, and unfortunately the Dbacks couldn't stop them. Here's hoping the Rockies continue the run and bring the trophy to an NL West team.

After all of that, I am now able to make an honest and thoughtful look at the 2007 Diamondback season. In a phrase, i'll sum it up best by saying this:

It Rocked.

It rocked! Can anyone honestly tell me this season wasn't awesome to watch? This was a team that was too young, too inexperienced, and lacking enough talent to win anything in the NL. This was a division that two years ago was being called the NL Worst. The Dbacks were supposed to do nothing this season, finish in the bottom of the NL, and get some experience for our young guys so they might make an impact 2 or 3 seasons from now.

Apparently, the Dbacks didn't get the memo. From their opening day win in Colorado, to Brandon Webb's 42 consecutive scoreless innings; from the teams 22 wins in 26 games streak to their race for the West crown; and from the emergence of young guys such as Chris Young, Mark Reynolds, and Justin Upton to their NLDS sweep of the Cubs, the 2007 Diamondbacks season has rocked.

This team had a penchant for winning tight games (32-20 in 1-run games) and getting blown out the next night (they allowed double-digit runs in losses 13 times, including 14-0, 14-5, 11-0, 10-1 to name a few). They got great starts from rookie Micah Owings, on the mound and from the plate, and got shelled with BK Kim not lasting more than 17 pitches in one outing. If nothing else, you can say this season was an up and down ride.

But, oh what a fun one.

Make no mistake about it, this Dbacks team is good. They are raw, and they are inexperienced, but they are good. Stephen Drew is in his second year. Miguel Montero and Carlos Quentin were in their 2nd year. Owings was a rookie. CY was a rookie. Mark Reynolds started the year in AA. Upton started the year in A. And this team was talented enough to get to the NLCS.

They have a word for a team like this. It's called upside. And this team has a TON of it. The Dbacks, through scouting, the draft, and player development, have built themselves a contender for many years to come. This is just the beginning...

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Now for the bad. For all the pluses about this team, there are some things they need to work on and address. The first is starting pitching. Livan Hernandez will be gone next year, and they need to find someone to replace him, as well as get another starter. They have situations in the outfield and at first base that are brewing and will need to be handled. The outfield is set, with Eric Byrnes in left, CY in center and Upton in right. Where does that leave Carlos Quentin, who came up the farm system as the solution in right but struggled mightily at the plate? And what about Carlos Gonzalez, the stud outfielder currently with their AAA club in Tucson? Where does that leave him?

At first base you have another situation entirely. Who's going to play there? CoJack improved at the plate through the year, but as he showed in the NLCS is a liability on defense. You could move Chad Tracy there, as his position (third base) was overtaken by Reynolds, who came up as a 2nd baseman. But Tracy isn't all that good on defense at first base either, and he wasn't that good at the plate either.

And then you have the Orlando Hudson situation. His contract is up at the end of next year, but he wants a new deal in place by the start of 2008, and he wants to get paid. After watching his buddy on the team, Byrnes, get a three-year, $30mil extension, Hudson will be looking for the same type of money. The Dbacks have repeatedly stated they don't want to pay that kind of money to Hudson, but with their unexpected success in the postseason, the Dbacks are reportedly upping their payroll next season as a result. Whether that money goes to re-signing Hudson or going after a starting pitcher remains to be seen.

Whatever happens, the 2007 Dbacks season was a fun one. It gave us thrills, it give us spills, and it gave us heart attacks.

But it certainly rocked...

NLCS

I won't for a second blame this entire series on one person. The entire Dbacks roster pulled a 'Cubs', not hitting with runners in scoring position, not pitching well, and not fielding well. They struggled and had bad luck in every possible way, from killing balls to short for outs to watching texas leaguers fall in against them. It was a buzzsaw, with the Rockies getting every call, every break, and all the luck.

With that said: For Christ's sake Conor Jackson. Make one GD play and that inning is over. I know we don't pay you for your defense, but come on. That was fucking pathetic. It's a fucking ground ball for fuck's sake, how the fuck do you boot that? Just catch the fucking ball and toss it to Micah covering first. That's ALL YOU HAVE TO FUCKING DO AND THE INNING IS OVER. Fuck you. Asshole.

Disgrace

That's about as damning a photo as I've seen. He doesn't exactly look like he's just sliding hard into second base. It looks like he's trying to take him out. Either way, that was an absolute embarrassment what the fans did in reaction. We take heat all week for not selling the game out, finally sell it out, and then get a bunch of jackasses throwing bottles onto the field. You know what Phoenix? Remember when i said you need to get out and support your team? Scratch that. If you're gonna act like a bunch of drunken retards stay home. Just stay home. I was there, and yeah, i was booing, but i wasn't about to throw anything on the field. What a joke...

Back later today with more thoughts on the actual game...