Bowl Season Review

Well, let's just say it was a disappointing end to the season for my picks. I finished 14-18, which is really, really bad. Much like this year's bowl season (zing!).

Ohio St. vs. LSU

Well, as promised, here is my preview of tonight's BCS Championship game between LSU and Ohio St. When this game was first announced, it was assumed by a lot of people that LSU would win this game, with the line being as high as LSU -6 at some places. Lately though, the line has been coming down, and now people are starting to believe that Ohio St. can pull this out. Currently the line sits at LSU-4.

I have been going back and forth on this for a couple of weeks now. LSU, when i have watched them this year, quite frankly have not been that impressive. That said, their only two losses have both been in triple overtime, which means to me that they are very hard to beat. They do play in a better conference (at least this year), and the rigors of that conference has to have toughened them up and made them battle ready. And lastly, with the last month off, LSU will actually be healthy going into this game, especially Glenn Dorsey, their stud D-lineman.

On the other hand you have Ohio St. Playing in the weaker Big Ten, the Buckeyes largely rolled through the conference schedule, with one notable exception: losing at home to Illinois. That loss wasn't a good one, but the officiating was questionable at best (see article here) and it was against a spread option offense, something the Big Ten teams traditionally struggle against when run well. LSU does not employ a spread offense, nor does it have particularly mobile quarterbacks like Illinois does with Juice Williams.

Most people point to just last year, when Ohio St. was in the same position, playing for the National Championship against a 'fast' SEC team, that time Florida. Big Ten - SEC matchups are always billed as speed (SEC) vs. strength (Big Ten). I myself am a proponent that strength will always beat speed, because if you hit someone hard in the mouth repeatedly, you wear them down, thus negating their speed aspect. Going into this bowl season, since 2000 the Big Ten was 11-11 against the SEC in bowl games. Pretty even if you ask me. But because of last year's Championship game, in which Ohio St. got destroyed by Florida, the perception is that the SEC is much better than the Big Ten.

It is last year's game precisely though that i think gives a little extra edge to the Buckeyes. They were embarrassed in that game, falling behind early (despite scoring first) and never being competitive in that game. There are many players from that squad still on the team this year, and i think they have something to prove.

Let's take a look at one more aspect, the coaching. Coach Les Miles has been a brash, risk-taking coach this year, and it has largely worked out for him. While his decisions can sometimes be questioned, his desire to win and competitiveness cannot. In the Florida game he went for it on 4th down four different times. In the Auburn game, which i still cannot believe and is one of the greatest endings to a game i have ever seen, Coach Miles had his team throw a 22-yard touchdown pass on 3rd down with 8 seconds remaining and down by 1, needing only a field goal. It was caught with 1 second on the clock left, but he risked running out of time if it was not caught. Coach Miles has huge juevos. Huge.

Coach Tressel, while not quite the risk-taker Miles is, is a fantastic in-game coach and is great at preparing his team. This team got beat-down last year, and Coach Tressel has been using that as motivation for a month. He has put together a 10-minute videotape of 'experts' spouting off about the Buckeyes not having a chance against LSU, and has been showing it to his team for the last week. And he had a month to prepare and gameplan for LSU, which is what he does best.

The game, as most bowl games do, will come down to turnovers and execution. For some reason, i think Ohio St. can pull this out. I think they will be fired up, from all of Tressel's motivational techniques and from last year's Championship game. I think they will be flying around the field on defense hitting people, and i think on offense they take Beanie Wells and pound him up the middle over and over. I also think Tressel will throw in a trick play or two to keep things off balance. And though Les Miles will certainly have some things in store for his team, i think Ohio St. gets it done.

Ohio St. +4 over LSU
Go Big Ten

College Bowl Picks

Wow, what an ugly round of picks yet again. I am currently at 12-15 in the postseason. Not good. One more round of picks leading up to the National Championship game, which i will do a special column/pick for that game.

Oklahoma -8 over West Virginia
Did you know that bowl teams with a coaching situation in flux are currently 1-6? You remember me mentioning this in my first round of bowl picks? And the only team that won was Michigan, whose coach is retiring? Oh, and Oklahoma was in the Fiesta Bowl last year and lost to Boise St. Something tells me they don't make that mistake again...

Virginia Tech -4 over Kansas
Kansas played absolutely no one this year except for Missouri, and they lost that game by 8. The Hokies are battle tested, and should win fairly easily.

Rutgers -10 over Ball St.
When did crappy bowl games start getting on in the New Year? How is this a good thing?

Tulsa -4.5 over Bowling Green
Seriously, these two games are the lead-up to the National Championship game? How did this happen? Who approved this?

College Football Picks

Good lord, i suck at picking these against the spread. On a side note-, i'm something like 11-4 in a bowl picks pool, but only 6-9 ATS on here. Go figure...

Onto my next round of picks, which covers games for today and tomorrow. Quite the slate we have for the two days. I'm at work this morning, hoping to get out of here early so i can watch some games and get ready for the New Year's Eve Party tonight...

Air Force +4.5 over California
California fell off the face of the planet the last half of the year, and Air Force was playing well. I like to service academy school in the service academy bowl...

South Florida -6.5 over Oregon
Did you see how bad the Ducks played once Dennis Dixon went down?

Fresno St. +6 over Georgia Tech
I like Fresno and their coach, Pat Hill. I have seen neither team play this year however.

Kentucky -whatever over Florida St.
I think this line was 3, but i'm not sure. Florida St. is missing 35 players. 35! Kentucky will absolutely roll.

Indiana +6 over Oklahoma St.
Indiana should ride their season long emotion and determination from their ex head coach Terry Hoeppner, who passed away in June.

Auburn +3 over Clemson
I really struggled with this one, but in the end went with the team whose only losses in the last two months were to Georgia and LSU. Edge goes to Auburn.

Wisconsin +2 over Tennessee
I also struggled over this one. Wisconsin usually plays well in bowl games. That's about all i got.

Missouri -4 over Arkansas
There is a chance Missouri doesn't show up because they feel slighted they're not in a BCS game, but i think they do and i think they roll.

Florida -11 over Michigan
Which teams did Michigan have the most trouble with this year? Spread Offenses. What type of offense does Florida run? A Spread Offense. There you go.

Texas Tech -6 over Virginia
Virginia doesn't see offenses like this in the ACC.

USC -14 over Illinois
I'm sorry, i just can't see how Illinois is going to keep this remotely close.

Georgia -8 over Hawaii
Georgia is a huge step up from anyone Hawaii has played this year. I think the Bulldogs get it done.

More College Bowl Picks!

Off to a rough start, going just 2-4 to start the bowl season. I have a lot of making up to do apparently to get a respectable record. Hopefully, since we're getting into more teams i know and have seen play, i can do a little better. This will cover the next round of games, through Sunday.

Central Michigan +8 over Purdue
In another matchup of two teams that faced off in the regular season, i like the Chippewa's to avenge their loss to Purdue early in the season. Ask UCLA how hard it is to beat a team twice in the same year...

Texas -2.5 over ASU
ASU beat absolutely no one this year, and lost to the only two good teams they played (USC and Oregon before Dixon was hurt). Their might be somewhat of a letdown for the Sun Devils because they thought they might make a BCS game, but i think their coach Dennis Erickson will get that out of their system. Still, i like Texas in this game.

Boston College -4 over Michigan St.
Let's see, a team who's notorious for collapsing down the stretch against a team with arguably the most NFL-ready qb in college football? I like the qb, and i think BC has something to prove.

TCU -4.5 over Houston
Ok, i'll admit i know absolutely nothing about either of these teams...

Maryland +5.5 over Oregon St.
This game was a hard one to pick. I like the way Oregon St. played at the end of the year, but i also like Terrapin's coach Ralph Friedgen's ability to gameplan with a month to do it. In the end, i still with a team who has been in more big games the last few years, Maryland.

UCONN +3 over Wake Forest
The fact that this game is in North Carolina scares me, as it's only about 2 hours from Wake's campus. I do like the way the Huskie's played this year though, so i'll go with them.

Central Florida -3 over Mississippi St.
It would be a good story for Mississippi St. to win this game, as they've had a good year and have a great coach. I don't think they will be able to pull this one out though.

Penn St. -5.5 over Texas A&M
This is one of the rare occasions this bowl season you'll see me pick a Big Ten team, cause i think they're losing most of their games. Like Penn St. here though, and haven't been impressed with A&M when i've seen them play this year.

Colorado +3.5 over Alabama
Any team that beat Oklahoma and dropped 65 on Nebraska has my vote...

College Bowl Picks

Ok, kids, the time has come. It's Bowl Season!!!

I finished the regular season at 39-34-2, a pretty craptastic record if i do say so myself. But the slate is wiped clean! It's the postseason! It's the Bowls!

This is not the whole complete list yet, as that's pretty in-depth and i haven't had enough time yet. But since the games start tonight, i have to get a few predictions out. So this covers the first round of games, through Christmas. Six games total, let's go!

Navy +8 over Utah
I originally had this game the other way. My reasoning was that i hate teams whose coaches have left, are leaving, or are rumored to be leaving. And Navy's Paul Johnson already left. But, they have a hell of an offense to stop, they promoted from within so the continuity should be there, and i'm not sold on Utah blowing them out. So there.

FAU -3 over Memphis
I like legendary coach Howard Schnellenberger and the quickest team to ever reach a bowl game (they've been a program for just 7 years). That's all.

Cincinnati -11 over SMU
Cincinnati has a good quarterback (Mauk), and SMU has an out-going coach. There's your 11 points.

Nevada +3 over New Mexico
New Mexico lost their leading rusher for this game, and Nevada's qb has been hot.

BYU -6 over UCLA
The fact that BYU is favored by 6 in this game is surprising. Then again, i'm picking them, so it may not be that surprising. BYU has won 9 in a row, UCLA is a sinking ship without a coach (sense the theme?).

Boise St. -11 over E. Carolina
I like Boise St. They're a proven commodity, especially in bowls.

Alright, that covers games until next Wednesday, plenty of time to get the rest of the picks up. It's hard work picking games in which you know nothing about either team, nor have seen either of them play a down this year. So these were all pretty much a crap-shoot. Just a warning.

Happy Bowling everyone!