Super Bowl Pick

How depressing is this? The last game of football for the next 8 months. I'm not gonna lie, that sucks ass. Major ass. What the hell am i going to spend my saturday and sundays doing now?

Anyway, over the conference championships i went 0-2, per usual in the playoffs. I am now 4-6 since the regular season ended, not exactly knocking it out of the park...

New England vs. New York Giants (Pick at the end of column)
I've been waffling on this pick for the last two weeks, trying to decide exactly how this game is going to go. Ideally, it's a close, tight, back and forth game the entire way, with one team scoring late to win the game. Then again, it is the Super Bowl, and they haven't been particularly entertaining as of late.

New England has been scary good at times this season, but has shown some kinks in the armor in recent weeks, and haven't covered the spread in a month. Some people blame that fact on the weather and the fact New England has gome to more of a power running game, getting away from the wide open spread passing attack they opened the season in. While i agree they have been running more, i'm not convinced it's because of the weather. Either way, inside University of Phoenix stadium will be no weather conditions, so if the Patriots choose to throw down the field, they won't have problems from that.

The Giants, however, have been an enigma most of the season. Playing spectacularly bad at times, including a 41-17 drubbing at the hands of the Vikings at home. They also have played solidly well at other times, especially late this year into the playoffs. The change, as everyone loves to point out, has been Eli Manning and his play. Eli has always been a bit inconsistent, but the last four games has been very good, limiting his mistakes and making some great throws.

As many people do, i believe this game comes down to the play of Eli. As he goes, so go the Giants. The key is how much pressure he receives. When he has time to sit back in the pocket and scan the field, he has the ability to pick apart the defense. When he is under constant pressure, he gets happy feet and has a tendency to force things and make mistakes. Witness the above-mentioned Vikings game, who pressured Eli early and often, forcing him into three INT's, two of which were returned for TD's. The Vikings had a gameplan to go all out after Eli, and it worked to near perfection.

Bill Belichick is a master at preparing for teams, esepcially given two weeks to do it. While his penchant this season has been to play mostly straight up defense for three quarters, then bring pressure and blitzes in the 4th has worked all season, i expect him to mix it up in this game. He has seen how well Eli has been playing, and he has no doubt seen what getting to him early does to him.

I expect the Patriots to come out throwing as well, trying to get an early lead to force Eli and the Giants to play catch-up. While i think they will stick to their gameplan and power run it even down one score, if the Giants get down a couple of scores they may be forced to air it out. If that happens, Eli will have to play a near-perfect game in order to just keep it close. He did that the last time these two teams met, in the final regular-season game of the season. I'm sure Belichick has also studied that game and will try some new things on defense.

As i said, i expect the Patriots to come out looking to score early and often, which i also believe they will be able to do. That, combined with the pressure i expect them to bring on Eli as much as possible, should force the Giants into making some mistakes and getting behind big early. Once that happens, it will be all over for New York. That's why my pick is:

New England -12 over New York Giants.