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Saturday, December 22, 2007

NFL Picks

40-29-5 on the season, with two weeks left. A good week this week, and i'll be in good shape to finish the season. Off we go!

Cleveland -3 over Cincinnati
I think this line should be higher. I also don't think it will be quite the high-scoring, defense-less affair it was the first time these two teams met.

Indianapolis -7 over Houston
This game does scare me a little bit, for a number of reasons. One, Indy has nothing to play for, so they might be into the game. Two, this has all the feelings of Manning playing for 2.5 quarters, then sitting for the rest of the game, which would be incredibly detrimental to my fantasy team in the super bowl. Three, the Texans have a tendency to play pretty well against the Colts as of late. But, i still like the Colts. Hopefully Manning will be sharp, through for 250 yards and three touches before sitting down midway through the 3rd quarter.

Detroit -5 over Kansas City
How do you right the Lions ship? Bring in the Chiefs to play them.

Philadelphia +3.5 over New Orleans
The Saints are on fire right now. They are fighting for a playoff spot, needing just a little bit of help. The Eagles were eliminated from the playoffs last week and have nothing to play for. McNabb's future with the Eagles is in doubt, and other than last week's win over the Cowboys, haven't been playing all that great. That said, i like the Eagles to play spoiler here for some reason...

San Diego -9 over Denver
The Chargers might be the hottest team in football (with my own Vikings), and are playing great right now. They're at home, and have been straight killing the Broncos lately. Expect a blow-out.

Atlanta +10.5 over Arizona
The last time the Cards were a double-digit favorite at home, they lost to a terrible, terrible San Francisco team. I can't fathom a situation, under any circumstance, where the Cards should be a double-digit favorite over anyone. I don't care how well they've played at time this year and how awful the Falcons are. I don't think the Falcons will win, but i don't think they'll get blown out either.

New England -22 over Miami
I am really wrestling with this pick this week. I've been pounding the Patriots all year, but the last few weeks they haven't been playing quite as sharp and haven't been covering. Yet, Vegas hasn't adjusted for that yet and is still giving them huge lines. Still, the Dolphins are pretty bad and the Patriots are pretty good.

Thursday, December 20, 2007

Haren to the DBacks, WoW

Everyone is very excited about Dan Haren joining the Dbacks starting rotation, but I thought I would add some knowledge for y'all. Webb & Haren both had 34 starts, pretty routine for them the past 3 years, or 68 starts between them. Webb had 18 wins and Haren 15 last year for a total of 33. Webby and the Dbacks also won 4 additional games (out of 6) he started but did not factor into the decision. The A's also won 4 games when Haren received a no decision. Assuming that both have similar seasons, which is highly probable, that is a total of 41 wins in 68 games. 41 - 27, or 13 games over .500 from our top two starters. If the number 3 - 5 starters can just play .500 ball for the remaining season it will translate into 88-74.

I personally think that Haren will easily have a higher winning percentage due to being on a much better team than last year and expect at least 3 - 5 more team wins from the Dbacks, thus bumping that 88 wins to 92 and enough for the playoffs. Bottom Line - Webb and Haren will pitch the DBacks into the postseason if we can just get .500 ball from Davis, Owens and RJ or... ? The 1 - 2 punch of Webby and Haren will be even more effective in the playoffs, it should be a very good year! Is it February yet?

College Bowl Picks

Ok, kids, the time has come. It's Bowl Season!!!

I finished the regular season at 39-34-2, a pretty craptastic record if i do say so myself. But the slate is wiped clean! It's the postseason! It's the Bowls!

This is not the whole complete list yet, as that's pretty in-depth and i haven't had enough time yet. But since the games start tonight, i have to get a few predictions out. So this covers the first round of games, through Christmas. Six games total, let's go!

Navy +8 over Utah
I originally had this game the other way. My reasoning was that i hate teams whose coaches have left, are leaving, or are rumored to be leaving. And Navy's Paul Johnson already left. But, they have a hell of an offense to stop, they promoted from within so the continuity should be there, and i'm not sold on Utah blowing them out. So there.

FAU -3 over Memphis
I like legendary coach Howard Schnellenberger and the quickest team to ever reach a bowl game (they've been a program for just 7 years). That's all.

Cincinnati -11 over SMU
Cincinnati has a good quarterback (Mauk), and SMU has an out-going coach. There's your 11 points.

Nevada +3 over New Mexico
New Mexico lost their leading rusher for this game, and Nevada's qb has been hot.

BYU -6 over UCLA
The fact that BYU is favored by 6 in this game is surprising. Then again, i'm picking them, so it may not be that surprising. BYU has won 9 in a row, UCLA is a sinking ship without a coach (sense the theme?).

Boise St. -11 over E. Carolina
I like Boise St. They're a proven commodity, especially in bowls.

Alright, that covers games until next Wednesday, plenty of time to get the rest of the picks up. It's hard work picking games in which you know nothing about either team, nor have seen either of them play a down this year. So these were all pretty much a crap-shoot. Just a warning.

Happy Bowling everyone!

Monday, December 17, 2007

NFL Picks Review

3-4 this week, not a great showing. 40-29-5 on the season, with two short weeks left. Then it's playoffs time baby. On a side note- Go Vikings tonight against the Bears!

Sunday, December 16, 2007

NFL Picks

Ok kids. This post is a little late as i meant to get it out before the Thursday game, or especially before the Saturday game, but quite frankly i'm lazy and haven't been feeling well. So there you go. 37-25-5 on the year, three weeks to finish out strong. Here we go!

New Orleans -4 over Arizona
Same argument i used last time i picked against the Cards: The Cardinals are missing three starters on defense due to injury, two in the secondary. The Saints have been playing well and throwing the ball around. The Cards are fighting for their playoff lives, and i don't think they have it in them.

Baltimore -4 over Miami
A lot of people are picking the Dolphins to win the this game and end their losing streak. I just don't see it. The Ravens still have some semblance of a good defense, and the Miami offense is still really bad.

Green Bay -8.5 over St. Louis
St. Louis still sucks, and the Packers are rolling (I hate saying that...)

Carolina +7.5 over Seattle
Seattle has struggled playing across country this year, and the Panthers are better than their record.

Indianapolis -11 over Oakland
The Colts are hitting their stride right before the playoffs, playing very well and blowing teams out. The Raiders are starting Josh McCown at qb, with rookie JaMarcus Russell slated to see his first action of the season also. I think the Colts roll.

New York Giants -5.5 over Washington
With Jason Campbell out and Todd Collins starting at qb for the Redskins, i think the Giants cruise to a fairly easy win at home.

New England -21 over New York Jets
I've gone back and forth on this one all week long. Taking into consideration the possible weather conditions, i think it might be hard for New England's aerial attack to put up a ton of points. And with everyone in the country thinking the Patriots will absolutely destroy the Jets, it makes me want to go the other way (a tried and true gambling rule). Then again, i've been banging the Patriots all year, they've only let me down a couple of times, and i do think Belichick wants to embarrass Mangini. So my pick is the Patriots. By a lot.